Tuesday, 8 April 2008

Apple Analysts and the 3G iPhone

Company Analyst Reason to believe Time Frame Details
Gartner Ken Dulaney "he has heard from Asian sources" "As soon as possible" Apple has ordered 10 million 3G iPhone with OLED
Citigroup Rich Gardner Overseas meetings with members of the Taiwanese PC and consumer electronics supply chain April - June "The enterprise smartphone market will, for the foreseeable future, be dominated by RIMM and Nokia."
UBS Nicolas Gaudois various checks, and particularly an HSDPA design win by Infineon April - June Apple may not intend to have EDGE-only options in
future iPhones
Piper Jaffray Gene Munster Supply problems in NYC, discounts in Germany May-July 3G model to be sold alongside 2G
Bank of America Scott Craig "Channel check" June 3 million will be built in May, to be followed by another 8 million in the third quarter of the year
Current Analysis Avi Greengart Electronista June Coincide with the iPhone 2.0 firmware
American Technology Research Shaw Wu Checks with supply chain sources Late June - Early July The current "2.5G" iPhone could remain on
the market, using a newer case
RBC Capital Markets Mike Abramsky Wall Street Journal September - December

In our ongoing mission to keep an eye on analysts, we’ve put together this chart of the prognosticators, for a considered view on when we can expect the new 3G iPhone to emerge.

The majority verdict seems to point to some time in June, perhaps alongside the 2.0 Firmware launch… perhaps at WWDC. We still have one pessimist – last we read, Mike Abamsky at RBC was citing technical problems pointing to a delay until after the summer. If this turns out to be true, RBC gets extra kudos for standing out from the pack.

Another popular view that is emerging is that Apple will sell the existing Edge model alongside the new 3G model, although UBS’s predictions seem to contradict this view.

We’ll keep you posted as the analysts tell us more about how we should “think about” Apple, and give us “additional color” on developments. Or alternatively, if you struggle to tell your Gartners from your Garders, please feel free to just skip these analyst posts ;)

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