Tuesday, 8 July 2008

This round goes to Shaw Wu at American Technology Research

In April, Mac Predictions ran a piece on analyst predictions for the release of the iPhone 3G. Doom mongers RBC Capital Markets, who claimed that technical problems would result in the iPhone 3G being delayed until September-December, were (fortunately) completely wrong.

Most of the other analysts were in the same territory - as Nassim Nicholas Taleb would point out, their predictions seem to correlate more closely with each other, than the actual data. Perhaps some of them were just taking a guess at a WWDC release, or maybe they were simply following the crowd. Nothing wrong with that for a blogger, but analysts actually get paid for their predictions!

One analyst who deserve congratulations is Shaw Wu of American Technology Research, whose “late June, or July” timeframe proved to be the most accurate. At the time, he cited checks with supply chain sources, which should lend more credence to such claims in future.

Too early:
  • Gartner
  • Citigroup
  • UBS
  • Bank of America
  • Current Analysis

Pretty close:
  • American Technology Research
  • Piper Jaffray

Too late:
  • RBC Capital Markets

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